International Monetary Fund forecasts India's 2018 growth at 7.3 pc, praises GST, bankruptcy code

10 Octubre, 2018, 03:46 | Author: Arnold Perez
  • PM Khan talks to media persons in Lahore. —DawnNewsTV

"Nonetheless, despite trade tensions and continued monetary policy normalisation in a few advanced economies, global financial markets have remained buoyant and appear complacent about the risk of a sudden, sharp tightening in financial conditions".

While saying Chinese growth "remained strong", the International Monetary Fund added that Beijing policymakers were navigating a "difficult trade-off between growth and stability".

"Growth has proven to be less balanced than we had hoped", IMF Chief Economist Maurice Obstfeld told reporters Tuesday in Bail. Less than 1 percent of the nation's more than 200 million people file tax returns and its exports, including textiles, lag the region.

The report warned that growth "may have peaked in some major economies".

Pakistan's previous government had set a growth rate target of 6.2 percent for the current fiscal year but worldwide and local institutions predict that the country will not be able to achieve this.

The fund left its 2018 USA forecast unchanged but cut its expectation for next year, citing the impact of the trade conflict.

Maurice Obstfeld on Tuesday told the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund that there were "both benefits and risks" to Pakistan's cooperation with China.

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The downgrade reflects a confluence of factors, including the introduction of import tariffs between the United States and China, weaker performances by eurozone countries, Britain and Japan, and rising interest rates that are pressuring some emerging markets with capital outflows, notably Argentina, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia and Mexico.

The fund urged governments to focus on policies that can share the benefits of growth more widely, helping counter the growing mistrust of institutions, and to avoid "protectionist reactions to structural change".

It left 2018 growth forecasts for the two countries unchanged at 2.9 percent for the US and 6.6 percent for China. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 7.44 points, or 0.10 per cent, to 7,728.51 at the opening bell.

In the fund's latest Global Economic Outlook, it estimated that the South African economy would grow by 0.8% this year, down from its initial projection of 1.5% in April.

"Notwithstanding the present demand momentum, we have downgraded our 2019 USA growth forecast owing to the recently enacted tariffs on a wide range of imports from China and China's retaliation".

"IMF's downgrade just goes to show how the tariff dispute between US and China is beginning to take its toll on the global economy", said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in NY.

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