Brent oil jumps to four-year high near $81

26 Setiembre, 2018, 17:04 | Author: Arnold Perez
  • Saudi energy minister rips Trump tweet: 'I do not influence oil prices'

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $81.39 per barrel at 0042 GMT, up by 19 cents, or 0.2 percent from their last close.

The OPEC governor, Hossein Kazempour Ardebili of Iran, said in comments to Reuters that Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation were unable and unwilling to add more production at short notice.

JPMorgan said United States sanctions on Iran could lead to a loss of 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), while Mercuria warned that as much as 2 million bpd could be knocked out of the market.

Ben Luckock, co-head of oil trading at fellow merchant Trafigura said crude oil prices could rise to $90 per barrel by Christmas and to $100 by the New Year as markets tighten.

But whether a crude price increase can be curbed remains unclear as there are no substantial plans for which countries will raise output, or by how much.

In June this year, however, after months of cutting by more than their pact had called for, largely due to involuntary reductions from Venezuela and other producers, they agreed to boost output by returning to 100 percent compliance.

The sanctions against Iran's oil sector are set to begin on 4 November and Opec and non-Opec oil producers ruled out an immediate production hike to counter falling supply.

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A committee comprised of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel and non-OPEC producers said it was satisfied with the current market outlook, which represented "an overall healthy balance between supply and demand".

"The market does not have the supply response for a potential disappearance of 2 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter", Jaeggi said in a speech at the S&P Global Platts Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) in Singapore.

Indian refiners - struggling from high crude feedstock prices and a sliding rupee - are planning to reduce oil imports in what could be a first sign that high prices are starting to hurt demand. "In my view, that makes it conceivable to see a price spike north of US$100 a barrel".

Commodity traders Trafigura and Mercuria said that Brent could rise to $90 per barrel by Christmas and pass $100 in early 2019, as markets tighten once U.S. sanctions against Iran are fully implemented from November. OPEC's own estimates, according to its secondary sources such as researchers and ship-trackers, put Iranian output at 3.58 million bpd.

With supply and demand issues raging, $100 oil may not be far off at all. "That is one of the reasons we have cruised toward $80", he said.

Iranian leaders have already threatened to disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's busiest sea route for crude oil exports.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.30, or 1.8%, to $72.08/Bbl, its best settlement price since July 10, Kallanish Energy reports.

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