Soybeans plunge to fresh lows as Trump’s trade war persists
16 Julio, 2018, 12:42 | Author: Arnold Perez
"China is not a market that appeared overnight", he said, adding that farmers have worked with the Department of Agriculture for decades to develop foreign markets for soybeans.
Rabobank said last week it reckoned China will have to buy 15 million tonnes of US beans with the new tariff this year because there aren't enough alternative sources of beans from other major exporters, like Brazil and Argentina.
Last week, the US administration imposed a 25-percent additional tariff on 34 billion dollars worth of imports from China, forcing China to retaliate on USA imports.
Even Brazil, the world's top soya bean exporter, is prepping for major purchases of USA soya beans to feed its domestic processors as it diverts more of its own crops to China at premium prices, according to exporters association Anec.
Beam Farms will harvest its soybeans this fall, but then decide what to do next year. Brazil may import up to 1 million tonnes of USA soybeans, with purchases likely ramping up in October, said Anec representative Lucas Trindade.
Soybean prices remained in the doldrums on Thursday. Canada, Mexico, and the European Union have also set duties on USA farm exports in response to US tariffs.
The comments from a senior COFCO executive come amid concerns that hefty import tariffs applied by Beijing on American goods, including soybeans, will inflate costs for farmers and potentially increase retail prices of foods, like pork, the nation's favorite meat.
President Trump has vowed to protect farmers from unfair Chinese retaliation, though the administration has declined to spell out the assistance it might provide.
He said China has bought about 2.5 million metric tons of soybeans on forward contracts he expects will be cancelled.
Farmers are entering their 5th year of low crop prices. and now soybeans have reached a 10-year low, in part due to Chinese tariffs. The soybean stockpile would surge to 580 million bushels by the time the 2019 crop is ready for harvest, the largest US "carryover" in 74 years of USDA records.
All the same, the average price for this year's US soybean crop was forecast at $9.25 a bushel, 75$ lower than a month ago and the lowest in four years.
'From October to January, they will have to rely on the United States for some of the soya bean supplies although volumes could be less, ' said Phin Ziebell, an agribusiness economist with National Australia Bank. The U.S. crop was projected at 4.310 billion bushels, the second largest ever.
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